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光伏又来利好!中美两国元首达成共识停止加征新关税

2018年12月2日,新华社英文版报道:中美双方决策层已同意停止进一步加征关税。因此,两国达成的税收承诺,整体来说对中国光伏厂商利好。新华社还报道称,中国和美国也将加紧谈判,争取取消所有附加关税。

有相关人士分析称,据美国白宫发布的官方新闻稿看,中美决策层就贸易问题达成一致的主要内容如下:同意暂缓加征关税。美国同意在2019年1月1日暂缓对2000亿美元中国商品的关税从10%提升至25%。中国同意从美国进口大量农产品、能源及工业、其他产品。农产品的进口立即进行。此外,同意立即就关税之外的一系列问题包括强制技术转让、保护,非关税贸易障碍,农业服务业等进行磋商,并在90天内达成一致。如果不能达成一致,上一项的10%关税将被提至25%。

受此前中美贸易摩擦影响,从中国大陆出口美国地区光伏的大门已彻底关闭,当地装机进入谷底,未来等待缓慢复苏。2018年前9月,从中国出口至美国的光伏产品数量仅为46MW,2016年、2017年分别为2.868GW、825MW。

前不久,能源一号曾引述过中国机电产品进出口协会的数据:2011年和2014年,美国分别对中国光伏产品发起过两次双反调查:2017年5月23日,当地继续对全球光伏电池、组件发起保障措施调查;2017年8月18日,USTR发起301调查。

(上图来自中国机电产品进出口商会、彭博等)

就美国光伏政策看,对光伏的需求依然是强劲的。ITC投资税收抵免政策延期到2022年;各州积极支持光伏发展,如加州强制2020年后新建房屋安装太阳能,2045年实现100%清洁能源供电。产量缺口方面,美国本土产能为7GW左右,产量1GW多,年装机10GW以上,产量缺口主要靠进口。

某光伏大厂副总裁今天告诉能源一号,国内组件厂商本身就有美国税收壁垒,“一方面是反倾销税,另外也需要被征收今年30%关税,明年降低至25%。目前来看中美双方决策层的共识,对于组件厂来说属于不好不坏,因为出口美国的组件依然会被征收25%的关税税率。”

另一方面,受中美双方刚刚达成新共识的这则消息影响,其他新能源产品未来继续出口美国或获得正面利好。

2018年9月17日,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布,将于9月24日起对中国约2000亿美元的产品征收关税,税率为10%,其中包括逆变器和非锂电池,并将于2019年1月1日起上升至25%。美国政府高级官员在与记者的一次电话中表示,9月至12月期间给予了部分缓冲时间,主要是为了给那些依赖这些进口产品的公司一些时间来转移供应链。

为应对贸易摩擦,国内多家公司在海外设厂。阳光电源股份有限公司(300274.SZ)已在印度设有3GW产能的逆变器工厂,从而有利于绕开贸易壁垒区并增加该公司的产品出口量。部分微逆厂商也正将生产转移至墨西哥,但由于墨西哥的工厂预计要到2019年二季度才能生产,这意味着这类厂商将要面对长达9个月的进口关税。

而就今天新华社所发布的“中美双方达成不再加征关税的共识”这一最新消息来看,2000亿美元的关税加征措施有望改变。如果确认取消的话,中国逆变器厂商也将迎来利好。

也有分析人士也对能源一号表示,特朗普本人性格多变,他本人可能会出现“出尔反尔”的情形,这对两国在税收方面的共识不利。

以下是白宫官方新闻稿:

The White House Office of the Press Secretary

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
 

December 1, 2018

Statement from the Press Secretary Regarding The President’s Working Dinner With China

The President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, and President Xi Jinping of China, have just concluded what both have said was a “highly successful meeting” between themselves and their most senior representatives in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Very importantly, President Xi, in a wonderful humanitarian gesture, has agreed to designate Fentanyl as a Controlled Substance, meaning that people selling Fentanyl to the United States will be subject to China’s maximum penalty under the law.

On Trade, President Trump has agreed that on January 1, 2019, he will leave the tariffs on $200 billion worth of product at the 10% rate, and not raise it to 25% at this time. China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between our two countries. China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately.

President Trump and President Xi have agreed to immediately begin negotiations on structural changes with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture. Both parties agree that they will endeavor to have this transaction completed within the next 90 days. If at the end of this period of time, the parties are unable to reach an agreement, the 10% tariffs will be raised to 25%.

It was also agreed that great progress has been made with respect to North Korea and that President Trump, together with President Xi, will strive, along with Chairman Kim Jong Un, to see a nuclear free Korean Peninsula. President Trump expressed his friendship and respect for Chairman Kim.

President Xi also stated that he is open to approving the previously unapproved Qualcomm-NXP deal should it again be presented to him.

President Trump stated: “This was an amazing and productive meeting with unlimited possibilities for both the United States and China. It is my great honor to be working with President Xi.”

全文为能源一号独家作品,严禁未经授权的转载、改写及复制。

联系投稿、合作:Nengyuanyihao@126.com

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